There is a lot of confusion as to what impeachment of the president watches replica means, and what is the process. In teaching my university law or government classes, on the first day I ask by a show of hands if Bill Clinton was impeached. Usually, no hands are raised that he was impeached. However, as we will see, he WAS impeached, but not convicted/removed from office. In fact, President Andrew Johnson was also impeached, but not convicted/removed from office: Clinton and Johnson are the only two presidents that have been impeached. In this post, I will explain the impeachment fake watches and conviction/removal from office process, and the chances that Trump will suffer that fate.
First, the impeachment process starts in the US house of Representatives. The House has the sole power of impeachment (US Constitution, article I, section 2, subsection 5). However, the constitution does not say what the process of impeachment is in the house, or what vote is to be required. The constitution states that each Omega Replica house (House of Representatives or Senate) may determine the rules of its proceedings (Art I, section 5). In theory then, the house could decide that a 10% or 90% or some other percentage is necessary for impeachment. However, if they did that, it is almost a certainty that the US Supreme Court would rule that unconstitutional (for various reasons). Therefore, a majority vote of the House of Representatives is required to “impeach” the president.
Second, once the House of Representatives votes to impeach the president, the Senate then holds a “trial” to consider whether or not to convict the president (remove from office). The replica patek-philippe watches vote necessary to convict the president is a two-thirds majority (Art I, section 3). There are only three basis (reasons) for conviction: treason, bribery, or high crimes and misdemeanors (Art II, section 4). The only term defined in the constitution is treason, the other two terms are not defined. The term bribery is fairly well understood. However, the term “high crimes and misdemeanors” is not. High crimes and misdemeanors can mean whatever the Senate wants it to mean. In reality then, the Senate can convict (remove from office) the president for any reason they want (after the House of Representatives has voted to impeach the president), so long as two-thirds of the Senate votes in favor of conviction (removal from office). This is as the framers of the constitution (the guys who wrote the Constitution) intended.
Will a majority of the House of Representatives vote to impeach President Trump? Will the Senate vote to convict Trump? Under the current situation, most probably not. Currently, Republicans are a majority of the House of Representatives, the same party as Trump, and so voting to impeach Trump would be a vote against their own party. For the same reason, it is extremely unlikely that two-thirds of the Senate would vote to convict Trump, and remove him from office. This situation could change if the Democrats win enough House seats in the November 2018 elections to be a majority of the House. Then it would be much more likely that the House would vote to impeach Trump. However, it would still be unlikely that two-thirds of the Senate would vote to convict Trump, since the Democrats would not hold two-thirds of the Senate seats.
On the other hand, there are two factors that would make it more likely that President Trump would be impeached by the house and convicted by the senate. First, Trump is disliked by some members of his own party, the Republicans, and some of them may vote to impeach or convict. However, there is not enough at this time that when added to the Democratic members of the House would make a majority, and nowhere near a two-thirds majority of the Senate. Second, if evidence of direct involvement or collusion of Trump with a foreign power (in this case Russia) to influence the US elections is found, then it is more likely that the House would vote to impeach, and the Senate would vote to convict. Likewise, if Trump is found to have obstructed the investigation into the possible collusion with Russia (or any other obstruction), then it is more likely
that the House would vote to impeach, and the Senate would vote to convict. In either case of possible collusion or obstruction, it would be up to the members of the House and Senate to decide what collusion or obstruction means, and if what Trump did deserves impeachment or conviction (rises to the level of high crimes and misdemeanors).
In summary, to impeach Trump the House of Representatives would have to vote by majority in favor of impeachment. Then to convict and remove Trump from office, the Senate would have to vote by a two-thirds majority to convict/remove from office. At the current time, the chances of that happening are very slim. However, this may change depending on what evidence is revealed against Trump, and the election outcomes in November of 2018.
